Housing Policy Analysis: External Uncertainties and the Three-Feelings Framework
SingTao · 1 SOURCESabout 2 hours ago3 MIN
Summary
Hong Kong's private residential market continues its upward trajectory, with the Rating and Valuation Department's latest data showing the price index at 323.2 points in June 2026, up 0.31 percent month-on-month and over 12 percent year-on-year. This represents 13 consecutive months of growth and the highest level in over two and a half years, with cumulative gains of 7.88 percent in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, projected completions of approximately 16,980 units in 2026 and 15,360 units in 2027 signal tightening supply. Amid these domestic dynamics, external variables—Middle East geopolitical tensions, U.S. interest rate trajectories, and cross-border capital policy uncertainty—present significant challenges for the second half of the year. Zhang Qiaochu, Managing Director of HL Valuation & Consulting Ltd and President of the Hong Kong Institute of Estate Agents, argues that housing policy should return to its essence of improving people's livelihoods by applying the "three feelings" framework of sense of gain, happiness, and security that was first introduced in the 2017 19th Party Congress report.
Key Points
- The private residential price index rose to 323.2 points in June 2026, up 0.31 percent month-on-month and over 12 percent year-on-year, marking 13 consecutive months of gains and the highest level in over two and a half years
- Projected completions for 2026 and 2027 stand at approximately 16,980 and 15,360 units respectively, continuing to decline from previous years, with tight supply providing price support
- Public rental housing waiting time dropped to 4.7 years in Q1 2026, an eight-year-plus low, though traditional public housing alone remains at 5.6 years, creating opportunities through Northern Metropolis development to further reduce waiting times and improve unit sizes
- Over 20,000 private buildings aged 30 or above require mandatory inspection under the inspection scheme, with approximately 9,000 receiving inspection notices by end of last year, and nearly 70 percent exceeding 50 years of age
- The Urban Renewal Authority's 2024 preventive maintenance subsidy plan received only 18 applications in over 22 months, covering approximately 11,400 units, indicating that incentives need strengthening to protect building safety
Why It Matters
This analysis arrives at a critical juncture for Hong Kong's housing market, where rising prices coincide with persistent supply constraints and external uncertainties. The "three feelings" framework—sense of gain, happiness, and security—provides a holistic lens for evaluating whether policies truly address citizens' housing needs, from faster access to public housing and larger units, to safer buildings and better community facilities. As the Northern Metropolis development advances and the city pursues its 2050 carbon neutrality goal, integrating these considerations into policy design could help the housing market navigate external volatility while delivering tangible improvements to residents' quality of life .
This analysis arrives at a critical juncture for Hong Kong's housing market, where rising prices coincide with persistent supply constraints and external uncertainties. The "three feelings" framework—sense of gain, happiness, and security—provides a holistic lens for evaluating whether policies truly address citizens' housing needs, from faster access to public housing and larger units, to safer buildings and better community facilities. As the Northern Metropolis development advances and the city pursues its 2050 carbon neutrality goal, integrating these considerations into policy design could help the housing market navigate external volatility while delivering tangible improvements to residents' quality of life .