HKO Warns of Potential Tropical Cyclone Forming in South China Sea Next Week
Thestandard · 1 SOURCESabout 1 hour ago2 MIN
Summary
As Tropical Cyclone Dolphin moves away from the region, a temporary calm has settled over the Northwest Pacific. However, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has warned that a broad trough of low pressure will edge closer to the Guangdong coast by the middle of next week, potentially carrying an active low-pressure area that could develop into a tropical cyclone .
Key Points
- The northern South China Sea currently exhibits warm sea surface temperatures, which could fuel development of the low-pressure system .
- Favorable atmospheric conditions—specifically weak vertical wind shear and strong upper-air divergence—could strengthen the system into a tropical depression or more intense cyclone .
- Heavy showers affected parts of the Pearl River Estuary early Saturday, but conditions are changing as the southwest airstream weakens .
- The European standard model predicts the potential cyclone will form further west in the South China Sea, moving westward toward the Leizhou Peninsula and eastern Hainan Island .
- The European AI model suggests the storm could interact with another low-pressure system in the East China Sea, steering it northeastward toward western Guangdong .
- The American computer model projects a more easterly formation in the South China Sea with a northwestern path toward eastern Guangdong .
- Temperatures across the region will climb again, bringing a return of very hot weather over the weekend and into early next week .
- International meteorological agencies are producing vastly different forecasts, creating significant uncertainty about the system's trajectory and strength .
Why It Matters
Hong Kong residents should prepare for potential severe weather by mid-next week as forecasting models remain divided on the tropical cyclone's exact path and intensity. The combination of extreme heat this weekend followed by possible storm activity underscores the importance of staying informed through official HKO announcements .
Hong Kong residents should prepare for potential severe weather by mid-next week as forecasting models remain divided on the tropical cyclone's exact path and intensity. The combination of extreme heat this weekend followed by possible storm activity underscores the importance of staying informed through official HKO announcements .