HKO Warns Super El Niño to Peak by December After Record Cyclones
Thestandard · 1 SOURCESabout 3 hours ago2 MIN
Summary
The Hong Kong Observatory announced Monday that an El Niño event has officially formed in the equatorial Pacific and is projected to strengthen into a "super El Niño" potentially marking the strongest such event since 1950. The forecast peak between November and December comes amid unprecedented tropical cyclone activity, with 13 cyclones recorded in August across the western North Pacific and South China Sea. The event is expected to persist through spring 2027.
Key Points
- The sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific monitoring region reached positive 2.5 degrees Celsius in August, a sharp increase since April
- Cumulative temperature anomalies exceeded positive 4.0 degrees Celsius over the past five months, confirming the El Niño is fully established
- The event is forecast to peak between November and December, with anomalies potentially exceeding positive 3.5 degrees—potentially a record since 1950
- The El Niño is expected to persist at least through spring 2027, though ocean temperatures should begin declining early next year
- August saw 13 tropical cyclones form across the western North Pacific and South China Sea, with 12 forming within the month alone—breaking records since 1961
Why It Matters
A super El Niño of this magnitude could disrupt global weather patterns, affecting Hong Kong's winter rainfall, typhoon season remnants, and regional agricultural systems. The record cyclone activity demonstrates the immediate impacts of these ocean temperature shifts on the region .
A super El Niño of this magnitude could disrupt global weather patterns, affecting Hong Kong's winter rainfall, typhoon season remnants, and regional agricultural systems. The record cyclone activity demonstrates the immediate impacts of these ocean temperature shifts on the region .