Deloitte Raises Hong Kong 2026 Retail Sales Forecast to HK$412 Billion
RTHK · 2 SOURCES1 day ago2 MIN
Summary
Deloitte China has upgraded its 2026 full-year retail sales forecast for Hong Kong to HK$412 billion, an 8.4% year-on-year increase, after first-half sales of approximately HK$203 billion rose 9.7% from the prior year . The upward revision reflects robust demand for durable goods, jewellery, watches, and luxury gifts, as well as strong growth in tourist arrivals expected to reach 59 million this year . Online sales demonstrated particularly strong momentum, surging 27.9% year-on-year in the first half, with penetration projected to surpass 10% of total retail for the first time .
Key Points
- Deloitte China raised its full-year retail sales forecast to HK$412 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, after first-half sales reached approximately HK$203 billion (up 9.7% YoY)
- Visitor arrivals are expected to total 59 million for 2026, an 18% increase, with 46 million coming from mainland China
- High-value goods drove growth: jewellery, watches, and luxury gifts are forecast to reach HK$60 billion (up 15.4%), while clothing and footwear is expected at HK$50 billion (up 16.3%)
- Online retail sales surged 27.9% year-on-year in the first half, with full-year growth projected at over 20%, pushing e-commerce penetration above 10% of total retail for the first time
- Zheng Huanran, Deloitte China Hong Kong Consumer Markets Business Lead Partner, attributed the strong performance to visitor growth, wealth effects, and technology product replacement cycles
Why It Matters
The revised forecast signals renewed confidence in Hong Kong's retail sector, which has been navigating post-pandemic recovery and changing consumer behaviour. As AI-powered devices and smart home products drive technology replacement cycles, while property market signs of recovery boost household spending, retailers must adapt strategies around luxury market accessibility, customer value enhancement, and cross-border pricing optimization to sustain this momentum .
The revised forecast signals renewed confidence in Hong Kong's retail sector, which has been navigating post-pandemic recovery and changing consumer behaviour. As AI-powered devices and smart home products drive technology replacement cycles, while property market signs of recovery boost household spending, retailers must adapt strategies around luxury market accessibility, customer value enhancement, and cross-border pricing optimization to sustain this momentum .