HKTDC lifts 2026 export growth forecast to 42-47%
On.cc · 3 SOURCESabout 2 hours ago4 MIN
Summary
The Hong Kong Trade Development Council said it has sharply revised up Hong Kong’s 2026 merchandise export growth forecast to 42% to 47%, from an earlier projection of at least 20%, citing stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence-related technology. The council also said its third-quarter export confidence indicators remained above the 50-point dividing line, suggesting exporters are still broadly optimistic even as geopolitical uncertainty persists.
Key Points
- The Hong Kong Trade Development Council raised its full-year merchandise export growth forecast to 42% to 47% on September 28.
- The previous forecast was for growth of at least 20%, and the revision was linked to stronger-than-expected AI-related technology demand
- In the third quarter, the current performance index was 51.8, up 0.8 quarter on quarter, while the expectation index was 51.3, down 1.1.
- HKTDC Director of Research Pang Ming (龐溟) said rapid growth in demand for AI products and infrastructure was the main driver of Hong Kong’s export surge.
- Electronics made up about 80% of Hong Kong’s total exports in the first eight months of 2026, with electronics exports rising 52.8% year on year
Why It Matters
The upgrade points to how heavily Hong Kong’s trade performance is being supported by the global AI supply chain, especially demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer parts and telecommunications equipment. For Hong Kong businesses, the latest confidence readings suggest exporters still see room for growth in major markets including mainland China, ASEAN and the United States, even with geopolitical risks unresolved