Super El Niño Alert: Near 100% Chance of Extreme Weather Through February
AM730 · 2 SOURCESabout 2 hours ago2 MIN
Summary
The World Meteorological Organization has issued an urgent alert confirming that El Niño has formed and is expected to intensify significantly, potentially becoming the strongest such event in 40 years of records. The phenomenon has a near 100% probability of continuing until February next year, with sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific already showing extraordinary deviations from normal levels .
The WMO announced on Thursday that the core indicator of El Niño intensity—sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific—has risen to 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, with weekly values exceeding 2.5 degrees above normal during late July to mid-August. Ocean sub-surface temperatures in some regions have registered more than 8 degrees Celsius above average, providing powerful momentum for continued intensification .
Key Points
- Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific are 1.5 to 2°C above average, with weekly deviations exceeding 2.5°C
- Ocean sub-surface temperatures exceed average by more than 8°C in some regions, fueling further strengthening
- WMO Secretary-General Saulo warned that if current trends persist, this could become the strongest El Niño in 40 years of observations
- Central American nations including Panama, Honduras, El Salvador, and Ecuador have declared states of emergency due to drought conditions
- The WMO has launched its largest mobilization in 50 years, coordinating with countries to strengthen forecasting and early warning services
Why It Matters
El Niño events typically disrupt global atmospheric circulation, potentially causing extreme weather across multiple continents simultaneously. The combination of this powerful El Niño with ongoing climate change means weather extremes could be more severe than historical patterns suggest, affecting food security, water resources, and infrastructure worldwide.
El Niño events typically disrupt global atmospheric circulation, potentially causing extreme weather across multiple continents simultaneously. The combination of this powerful El Niño with ongoing climate change means weather extremes could be more severe than historical patterns suggest, affecting food security, water resources, and infrastructure worldwide.