Midland IC&I Keeps Full-Year Property Price Forecast at 15% Rise, Eyes Catch-Up Potential
On.cc · 1 SOURCESabout 2 hours ago5 MIN
Summary
Midland IC&I has kept its full-year Hong Kong residential property price growth forecast at approximately 15%, arguing that current price levels still have meaningful upside potential. The company's chief executive indicated that while the third quarter showed modest consolidation with prices edging up only 1%, the fourth quarter is expected to deliver stronger momentum with a near 4% quarterly gain. The optimistic outlook is underpinned by anticipated acceleration in new project launches and continued rental demand driven by population inflows.
Key Points
- Midland IC&I projects primary private residential transactions to jump 50% quarter-on-quarter to roughly 5,100 units in Q4, as developers accelerate their launch schedules
- Secondary market transactions are forecast to climb 10% quarter-on-quarter to approximately 12,700 units in Q4, reflecting improved market sentiment
- Current property prices remain about 16% below the 2021 historical peak, providing room for a "catch-up" rebound, with Q3 rising 1% and Q4 expected to gain 4%
- C H M Chan (曹德明), chief executive at Mortgage Link, warns that the U.S. Federal Reserve may implement a "defensive" rate hike in Q4, though Hong Kong banks may not immediately follow
- Rental demand remains robust due to population growth, incoming professionals, talents, and international students, with rising rents pushing some tenants toward homeownership
Why It Matters
For Hong Kong residents considering property purchases, the sustained 15% full-year forecast suggests that the market correction that began in 2021 may be concluding, potentially shifting dynamics from a buyer's market toward more balanced conditions. The government's potential adoption of a 55% homeownership ratio target, combined with flexible supply adjustments in the Northern Metropolis, could reshape long-term housing policy and attract further investment to the city .
For Hong Kong residents considering property purchases, the sustained 15% full-year forecast suggests that the market correction that began in 2021 may be concluding, potentially shifting dynamics from a buyer's market toward more balanced conditions. The government's potential adoption of a 55% homeownership ratio target, combined with flexible supply adjustments in the Northern Metropolis, could reshape long-term housing policy and attract further investment to the city .