Midam Chairman Wong Kin-yip Maintains 15% Property Price Forecast, Predicts Bull Market Phase 2
SingTao · 1 SOURCESabout 3 hours ago2 MIN
Summary
Midam Group Chairman Wong Kin-yip has declared that Hong Kong's property market is transitioning into a more sustainable second bull phase, having passed through a necessary consolidation period. While recent transaction volumes have slowed due to seasonal factors and stock market volatility, Wong emphasizes that the underlying market fundamentals remain robust with eight supportive factors in place. He is maintaining his full-year residential property price appreciation forecast of 15%, expecting another 5% increase in the second half of 2024, with the current uptrend expected to continue in a stable manner .
Key Points
- The first seven months of 2024 saw approximately 46,800 residential transactions, representing a year-on-year increase of about 24% and marking the highest volume for the same period in five years
- Wong characterizes the market cycle as "Bull Phase 1" from mid-2023 to June 2024, driven by complete removal of cooling measures and interest rate cuts, followed by the current "Bull Phase 2" characterized by more measured gains
- Third quarter primary market transactions are forecast at 3,100 units, declining approximately 41% quarter-on-quarter, while secondary market deals are expected to reach around 11,400 units, down 28% quarter-on-quarter
- August new project transactions show promising signs of recovery, with expectations of returning to the 1,000-unit level and September performance anticipated to be even stronger
- Commercial properties are experiencing broad-based gains, with Grade A office vacancy rates declining to 9.3% and full-year Grade A office transactions projected to rise 7.5% to 1,275 deals, while rentals are expected to increase 3%
Why It Matters
For Hong Kong residents and property investors, Wong's analysis suggests that while the frenzied price acceleration of early 2024 has cooled, the market foundation is stronger and more durable. The shift toward sustainable growth rather than explosive rallies provides ordinary home buyers with more time to assess their finances and make deliberate decisions, potentially reducing panic-driven purchases that could distort the market. The expected recovery in fourth-quarter transactions, combined with robust demand from population growth and economic improvement, indicates that Hong Kong's property market may offer more stable investment prospects heading into 2025 .
For Hong Kong residents and property investors, Wong's analysis suggests that while the frenzied price acceleration of early 2024 has cooled, the market foundation is stronger and more durable. The shift toward sustainable growth rather than explosive rallies provides ordinary home buyers with more time to assess their finances and make deliberate decisions, potentially reducing panic-driven purchases that could distort the market. The expected recovery in fourth-quarter transactions, combined with robust demand from population growth and economic improvement, indicates that Hong Kong's property market may offer more stable investment prospects heading into 2025 .