Indian Intelligence Gathering Against China Risks Miscalculation, Chinese Expert Warns
SCMP · 1 SOURCESabout 1 hour ago2 MIN
Summary
A Chinese academic has warned that India's intensified intelligence operations targeting China could result in New Delhi miscalculating and taking unilateral countermeasures against Beijing. Zhao Ruoxi, a researcher with the Macau University of Science and Technology, published a paper analyzing India's intelligence operations focused on China from 2020 to 2026. The study highlights how routine Chinese activities are increasingly being framed as threats by Indian intelligence agencies. Despite recent diplomatic improvements between the two nations, India has continued expanding its intelligence-gathering capabilities against its northern neighbor.
Key Points
- Zhao Ruoxi's paper was published on July 31 in the Chinese-language Journal of Intelligence, run by the Shaanxi Institute of Science and Technology Information
- The 2020 Galwan Valley confrontation killed 20 Indian and 4 Chinese troops, plunging bilateral relations to a historic low
- India has broadened its intelligence toolkit using space-based reconnaissance, drone surveillance, and cyber intelligence to build a multi-agency network
- India partnered with the United States and Middle Eastern countries to track Chinese far-seas naval operations and monitor maritime energy supply routes
- Zhao identified India's heavy reliance on foreign data as a "structural weakness" making its China assessments vulnerable to third-party strategic agendas
Why It Matters
The continued escalation of intelligence operations despite diplomatic reconciliation efforts highlights the fragile nature of China-India relations. The risk of miscalculation in intelligence assessment could trigger unintended military confrontations in contested border regions. For Hong Kong readers, regional tensions between major Asian powers could affect global market stability and trade routes that pass through the Indian Ocean, impacting the city's position as an international financial hub .
The continued escalation of intelligence operations despite diplomatic reconciliation efforts highlights the fragile nature of China-India relations. The risk of miscalculation in intelligence assessment could trigger unintended military confrontations in contested border regions. For Hong Kong readers, regional tensions between major Asian powers could affect global market stability and trade routes that pass through the Indian Ocean, impacting the city's position as an international financial hub .