Hong Kong Observatory Predicts Low Typhoon Risk for Rest of October, Season Likely Over

The Hong Kong Observatory has forecasted a low probability of tropical cyclones directly affecting Hong Kong for the remainder of October, with the typhoon season likely concluding this month. This assessment follows the establishment of an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower atmosphere over the South China Sea to the Philippines region since late September, which has suppressed deep convection development and created unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation. This year's Northwest Pacific and South China Sea have recorded 34 tropical cyclones, significantly above the long-term average, including a record 12 in August alone. While only three tropical cyclones have entered Hong Kong's 500-kilometer radius this year, below the average of about five, the Observatory notes that if the typhoon season concludes in October or earlier, it would align with the annual outlook published in March. Currently, three tropical cyclones are active in the Northwest Pacific, with the potential to affect Japan and surrounding waters.

This forecast provides important guidance for residents and businesses planning outdoor activities or travel in the coming weeks, as the reduced likelihood of tropical cyclone impact means Hong Kong can expect relatively stable weather conditions. For the aviation and maritime sectors, the outlook suggests minimal weather-related disruptions from tropical systems. The pattern also offers an opportunity for post-typhoon recovery and infrastructure assessments, particularly for areas affected by earlier cyclones this season 123.