ASML Raises Full-Year Sales Outlook, Plans Capacity Expansion as AI Demand Surges
SCMP · 2 SOURCESabout 4 hours ago3 MIN
Summary
ASML, the world's sole producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, reported strong third-quarter results on Wednesday, driven by surging demand from AI infrastructure investments. The Dutch company raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance to between €44 billion and €45 billion, up from the previous range of €43 billion to €45 billion, while also lifting its gross margin forecast to approximately 57.5%, exceeding market expectations of 56.1% .
Key Points
- ASML posted Q3 net sales of €11.66 billion, a quarterly record, though slightly below the analyst consensus of €11.7 billion; net profit reached €4.96 billion versus market expectations of €4.11 billion
- The company sold 113 new lithography systems and 8 second-hand systems in the quarter, up from 86 new and 5 second-hand systems in Q2, with Installed Base Management revenue of €3.3 billion beating guidance
- ASML expects Q4 net sales of €14.2–15.2 billion, above the market estimate of €13.97 billion, with gross margin around 57%; full-year 2026 revenue growth is projected at 36%
- EUV machine sales are set to rise over 45% this year, driving the strong revenue outlook; CEO Fouquet noted customers are "asking us for more equipment every day"
- The company plans to increase low-NA EUV equipment production by 30% next year to reach approximately 85 units annually, but current supply plans cannot fully meet 2027–2028 demand, prompting evaluation of further capacity expansion for 2028 and beyond
Why It Matters
ASML's outlook serves as a key indicator for chip manufacturers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung Electronics, and Intel, whose own capital expenditure plans hinge on equipment availability . The company's position as the sole EUV lithography machine producer gives it unique leverage in the global semiconductor supply chain, where AI infrastructure spending continues to drive unprecedented demand for advanced chipmaking equipment.
Meanwhile, geopolitical pressures persist: Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten faces continued US pressure to tighten export restrictions on less advanced lithography machines to China under Washington's proposed Measure to Align Technology (Match) Act, with sources indicating Jetten is scheduled to visit China next spring .
Despite these headwinds, ASML's sales to China surged 109% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, accounting for 23% of machine sales, up from 14% in Q2, with the country expected to represent about 20% of total annual sales this year .
ASML's outlook serves as a key indicator for chip manufacturers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung Electronics, and Intel, whose own capital expenditure plans hinge on equipment availability . The company's position as the sole EUV lithography machine producer gives it unique leverage in the global semiconductor supply chain, where AI infrastructure spending continues to drive unprecedented demand for advanced chipmaking equipment.
Meanwhile, geopolitical pressures persist: Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten faces continued US pressure to tighten export restrictions on less advanced lithography machines to China under Washington's proposed Measure to Align Technology (Match) Act, with sources indicating Jetten is scheduled to visit China next spring .
Despite these headwinds, ASML's sales to China surged 109% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, accounting for 23% of machine sales, up from 14% in Q2, with the country expected to represent about 20% of total annual sales this year .