Super El Niño Could Bring Record Cold, Graupel to Guangdong This Winter
SingTao · 2 SOURCESabout 3 hours ago6 MIN
Summary
A super El Niño event has been officially confirmed over the east-central Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures exceeding normal levels for five consecutive months and peaking at 2.5°C above average during July to September. Meteorologists warn that while Guangdong may experience a generally warmer winter, extreme cold spells with temperatures dropping to as low as 1.5°C to 4.5°C are highly likely, raising the possibility of graupel falling on cities like Guangzhou for the first time since January 2016. Meanwhile, a cold front is already bringing temperatures down by 6-10°C across northern China, with heavy rainfall expected in southern regions over the next three days.
Key Points
- The China National Climate Center has confirmed that the east-central Pacific reached super El Niño thresholds in September 2026, with a three-month running average sea surface temperature anomaly exceeding 0.5°C for five straight months
- Wang Juanhuai (王娟懷), chief decision service analyst at the Guangdong Climate Center, stated that while El Niño typically brings warmer winters to Guangdong, it also triggers severe temperature swings and potential extreme cold surges
- The last super El Niño event occurred during 2015-2016, when Guangzhou experienced widespread graupel on January 24, 2016 — the first such occurrence in urban areas since the founding of the People's Republic
- The Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau forecasts winter extreme minimum temperatures between 1.5°C and 4.5°C, with rainfall 20-30% above the 30-year average for December through May
- A cold front currently sweeping through northern China caused temperatures to drop 6-10°C on Tuesday, with local areas in Heilongjiang seeing drops exceeding 12°C; heavy rain is expected in the south over the next three days
Why It Matters
For Hong Kong residents, this forecast signals heightened weather volatility heading into winter. The same El Niño pattern affecting Guangdong could bring unusually strong cold surges to southern China, potentially pushing temperatures lower than recent years. Rapid temperature swings pose particular health risks for elderly residents and young children, while above-average rainfall in the region increases the chance of urban flooding and travel disruptions .
For Hong Kong residents, this forecast signals heightened weather volatility heading into winter. The same El Niño pattern affecting Guangdong could bring unusually strong cold surges to southern China, potentially pushing temperatures lower than recent years. Rapid temperature swings pose particular health risks for elderly residents and young children, while above-average rainfall in the region increases the chance of urban flooding and travel disruptions .