business · Bastillepost

Government Updates Manpower Forecast: Shortage to Narrow to 130,000 in Three Years

about 16 hours ago5 MIN
Government Updates Manpower Forecast: Shortage to Narrow to 130,000 in Three Years

Summary

The Labour and Welfare Bureau released its latest Mid-term Update of Manpower Projection report on Tuesday, September 22, revealing that Hong Kong's overall manpower shortage is expected to narrow to approximately 130,000 by 2028. This represents a significant reduction from the previous projection of about 180,000, largely attributable to the government's talent recruitment and labour import initiatives implemented over the past three years . While the overall shortage has improved, critical industries continue to face substantial workforce gaps, with construction, city operations, healthcare, and innovation technology sectors experiencing the most acute pressures . Simultaneously, the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence is reshaping the employment landscape, creating a surplus in clerical positions while increasing demand for AI-savvy composite talents .

Key Points

  • Construction industry faces the largest manpower gap at 30,000 to 40,000 workers, driven by the Northern Metropolis development and major infrastructure projects
  • City operations is short by 20,000 to 25,000 personnel, healthcare by 13,000 to 18,000, and innovation and technology by 12,000 to 17,000
  • Shortages over the next three years concentrate in "skilled technicians" and "service and sales workers," accounting for roughly 60% of the total gap
  • "Clerical support workers" are projected to face a surplus of 25,000 to 30,000 by 2028 as enterprises expand AI applications, with graduate vacancies dropping by 60% compared to 2022
  • Hong Kong's overall labour force dipped from 3.5 million in 2023 to 3.47 million in 2025, and is projected to further decline to 3.4 million by 2028
  • Acting Labour Secretary Ho Kai-ming stated that without labour import measures, the shortage would expand to 300,000
  • AI applications are expected to boost productivity by 20 to 30 percent, though 20 to 30 percent of positions, primarily clerical roles, will face restructuring
  • Approximately 70,000 middle-aged clerical support workers without tertiary education face transformation pressure, while Hong Kong currently has only about 4,000 "AI composite talents"
  • The government plans to launch an "AI Skills Enhancement Programme" in the first half of next year and update the Talent List to include more AI-related professionals
  • About 30,000 to 40,000 unemployed persons face difficulties re-entering the workforce using their existing skills alone

Why It Matters

The report underscores a dual challenge for Hong Kong: while immigration policies have successfully reduced the overall shortage, they have not resolved structural imbalances across sectors . With about 70,000 middle-aged clerical workers facing transformation pressure and demand surging for "composite talents" with AI expertise, the government must craft targeted upskilling strategies to ensure workers can transition into the AI era without widening inequality . Labour Federation Chairman Lam Chun-sing has urged the government to prioritize local workers, warning that the number of arrivals from talent and labour schemes has already exceeded the 180,000 manpower gap projection, potentially impacting local employment opportunities . The report also highlights that without foreign talent and labour supplementation, Hong Kong's labour force would shrink to 3.21 million by 2028, exacerbating the shortage to 300,000 . --- Additional Perspectives from Sources The Labour and Welfare Bureau's Research Division Chief Chan Kwok-fai highlighted that over 70 percent of Hong Kong's employed population now uses AI tools in their daily work, with large and medium enterprises employing 50 or more staff leading adoption . He emphasized that the market demand for AI practitioners is experiencing explosive growth, with Hong Kong currently possessing only approximately 4,000 such composite talents representing just 0.1 percent of total employment . Deputy Secretary Tsang Yu-tung stressed that the government's manpower policy prioritizes training local workers, with imported talent and labour serving only as supplementary measures . She noted that the government will soon update the Talent List to include more AI-related professionals, particularly those with both industry knowledge and AI application capabilities . Long-term unemployment (six months or more) as a proportion of total unemployment has risen from approximately 20 percent pre-pandemic to 30 percent currently, reflecting deepening structural problems in the employment market . The Labour Federation's Lam Chun-sing expressed concern that arrivals from various talent and labour schemes have already surpassed the 180,000 manpower gap projection, urging the government to implement dynamic reviews of the talent list and tighten the local-to-imported worker ratio to 3:1 in high-unemployment industries .
The report underscores a dual challenge for Hong Kong: while immigration policies have successfully reduced the overall shortage, they have not resolved structural imbalances across sectors . With about 70,000 middle-aged clerical workers facing transformation pressure and demand surging for "composite talents" with AI expertise, the government must craft targeted upskilling strategies to ensure workers can transition into the AI era without widening inequality . Labour Federation Chairman Lam Chun-sing has urged the government to prioritize local workers, warning that the number of arrivals from talent and labour schemes has already exceeded the 180,000 manpower gap projection, potentially impacting local employment opportunities . The report also highlights that without foreign talent and labour supplementation, Hong Kong's labour force would shrink to 3.21 million by 2028, exacerbating the shortage to 300,000 . --- Additional Perspectives from Sources The Labour and Welfare Bureau's Research Division Chief Chan Kwok-fai highlighted that over 70 percent of Hong Kong's employed population now uses AI tools in their daily work, with large and medium enterprises employing 50 or more staff leading adoption . He emphasized that the market demand for AI practitioners is experiencing explosive growth, with Hong Kong currently possessing only approximately 4,000 such composite talents representing just 0.1 percent of total employment . Deputy Secretary Tsang Yu-tung stressed that the government's manpower policy prioritizes training local workers, with imported talent and labour serving only as supplementary measures . She noted that the government will soon update the Talent List to include more AI-related professionals, particularly those with both industry knowledge and AI application capabilities . Long-term unemployment (six months or more) as a proportion of total unemployment has risen from approximately 20 percent pre-pandemic to 30 percent currently, reflecting deepening structural problems in the employment market . The Labour Federation's Lam Chun-sing expressed concern that arrivals from various talent and labour schemes have already surpassed the 180,000 manpower gap projection, urging the government to implement dynamic reviews of the talent list and tighten the local-to-imported worker ratio to 3:1 in high-unemployment industries .

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